- To fight the health
(COVID-19) driven economic crisis, a record fiscal deficit, and record public
debt has invited the twin-balance sheet crisis (crisis in the balance sheet of
companies and banks) and created monetary challenges.
- So, it is almost sure
that a pandemic would create a recession and economists have debated on the shape
of it. There is an unanswered question that would recovery be a ‘V’ shape, a
‘U’ shape, or something new.
- A ‘V’ shaped recovery is
the most optimistic type of recovery as it suggests economic spending and
employment will rapidly decline, but after some time, quickly pick back up like
a ‘V’.
- A ‘U’ shaped is similar
but suggests a longer period of unemployment and low spending than a ‘V’ shaped
recovery.
- ‘L’ and ‘I’ shaped
recovery is another type of recovery and it is considered much direr. It
suggests high unemployment and low spending will have other ramifications like
debt defaults and an overwhelming economic system.
- ‘K’ shaped recovery is newly (not entirely a new) identified type of recovery. It is somewhere between
a ‘V’ and ‘L’ depending on who you are.
Industries like technology, retail, and software services have recovered
and begun re-hiring. On the other side, travel, entertainment, hospitality,
and food services industries have continued to decline.
- K-Shaped recovery also
shows the growing inequality resulting from the erratic effect of the pandemic in the indifferent sectors. Just like the letter K, some sector/people have again
gained the momentum and begun re-hiring like technology, medical, software,
online and internet-based services and whereas, some other sectors have been
facing the continued downturn like travel and tours, entertainment and recreation,
hospitality and food services, etc.
- The growing gap between
winners and losers among countries, economic sectors, companies, peoples will
create more economic inequality.
- Small countries who had
already the problem of shortage of capital and financing their spending with
external debt will become more vulnerable and the K-shaped economic recession
may push them into a debt trap or debt-servicing difficulties.
- Withing the economy or
within the sector, the big companies eat the small due to the economies of
scale. Small size and infant companies are more vulnerable and they are in the compulsion of collusion with big and larger companies.
What is K-Shaped Recovery?
Reviewed by
Tilak Singh Mahara
on
11/07/2020
Rating:
5
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